Message side
In terms of spot, on Wednesday, the tax included reference price of imported coniferous pulp spot market in Shandong: Silver Star, horse brand, Xiongshi 7150-7200 (+ 50) / T, kailipu 7200-7250 (0) / T.
In May, the port wood pulp inventory in Europe increased from the decline, but it was still at a historically low level. According to europulp, the total inventory of European ports in May was 1194800 tons, an increase of 17.86% over April and a decrease of 2.42% over the same period of last year. Among them, only the inventory of the United Kingdom declined in May, and the inventory of the ports of the Netherlands / Belgium, France / Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and Spain increased in the month on month.
On July 27, the top 20 futures companies of pulp (total contracts of the whole month) held 199100 multiple orders and 162900 empty orders, with a long short ratio of 1.22. The net position was 36200, an increase of 7185 over the previous day. According to statistics, the correlation coefficient between price and net position data in recent two years is 0.76, and there is a moderate positive correlation (isotropy) between them.
Institutional Perspective
Huatai Futures:
In the pulp market in the off-season, the start-up continues to decline slightly, and the demand is difficult to boost in the short term. The profit space of the pulp mill is limited, the transaction is cold, and the cost pressure of the enterprise continues to increase. Recently, the impact of macro factors on the whole soft commodity market has gradually weakened, and the price of pulp futures has rebounded. On the whole, there is still a small supply of imported wood pulp for circulation in Hong Kong, and the raw material price is high. The paper mills do not accept this, and the market transaction is still relatively cold, mainly based on just demand. It is expected that the pulp will still maintain a volatile pattern in the short term.
Fangzheng medium term futures:
On the macro level, the Fed’s interest rate increase in July was gradual, and the market had expected it. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual rate increase. For pulp in the long term, the risk of overseas demand decline will continue, and there is a possibility of weakening again in the medium term. As the delivery is approaching in recent months, after the deduction of the spot supply problem and the substantial reduction of the warehouse receipts, the 09 and 10 contracts may repair the discount, and the rebound peak may be around 7000-7100. The 2301 contract slightly follows the repair discount in recent months, but the rebound range is limited under the influence of the weak domestic finished paper and the negative overseas conditions. It is suggested to wait for the repair of the basis difference in recent months to allocate the 01 contract or participate in the normal set at a low price.
Post time: Aug-16-2022